2008/09 cotton production and foreign consumption declined slightly

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast 2008/09 cotton production and foreign consumption than the previous year’s record dropped slightly. Foreign production is estimated to be 100,000,000 package, a 1.5 percent reduction in 2007/08, and since 2005 for the first time since the decline. On the other hand, overseas consumption is expected to 117,900,000 for the package than the previous year fell 1 percent, but the 10-year decline for the first time.

As it is expected that foreign cotton cultivation to reduce the amount of consumption is much larger than the reduction of the foreign cotton this year is expected to expand the gap between supply and demand of 500,000 packets. 17,900,000 package will be a gap between supply and demand since the 2006/07 18,100,000 after the second-largest gap.

The report in October down to the U.S. cotton production forecast

United States Department of Agriculture’s October production projection, the 2008 U.S. cotton production forecast for a total of 13,700,000 package than the September forecast by 1% (135,000 packets), an 29% decline in 2007/08. The upland cotton production is expected to nearly 13,300,000 package – than the September report to reduce the 127,000 package – and ultra-long-staple cotton (ELS) is expected to yield 451,000 for the package – the 8000 cut package.

Over the past 20 years, the October forecast 16 times lower than the final output, higher than end-4 production. In addition, the last forecast in October and the final yield difference between the shows that the 2008 U.S. cotton production and 2 / 3 probability is between 1310 and 14,300,000 between the package.

In 2008 the regional upland cotton production than in previous years has been falling. Compared with last month’s forecast, the October report, expected in three of the four regions in the cotton output decrease.

Delta cotton production is expected to reduce by 4%, about 3,700,000 packages, since 1986, the lowest since production. Losses brought about by the hurricane will be offset by Missouri, Tennessee and the growth of output. This was followed in October is expected to report production of cotton was also in southwestern and western regions.

On the contrary, in southeastern cotton production increased by nearly 3,200,000 packets than forecast in September increased by 2%. Despite the forecast increase in October, but production in the region or 15 years, the minimum value. Acreage since 1993 is the lowest. However, the south-eastern regions of the single-output reached 788 pounds / acre harvest, is the first of three record high.

The year 2008 is expected to total harvested area is only 7,800,000 acres, is 25 years, the minimum size, species and the area is abandoned 18 years of record. For this reason, the United States in 2008 cotton output was only 849 pounds, single / harvested acres over last year by 30 pounds, but still the third highest in the history of single-output record.

As of October 5, the U.S. cotton harvest progress was only 16%, lower than the same period in 2007 of 26% and 5-year average of 24%. Most U.S. states have postponed the harvest progress, especially in Arkansas and Mississippi with the obviously slow in previous years. Miao Qing early October and the overall situation similar to last year, reaching 50% of the “good” or “excellent”, but 20% of “poor” or “poor.”

Exports are expected to cut a large inventory and price adjustment was

U.S. cotton exports is expected this month to reduce the 1500000-13000000 package. Although last month from a substantial reduction in export volume, but more in line with the expected value of the previous two years. This month is expected to reduce consumption of foreign cotton, coupled with the increase in foreign production of cotton, cotton on foreign imports is expected to demand fell to its lowest level in four years. However, U.S. cotton in the global market share will remain good up to 36%, three years is the maximum value.

Although the United States is expected this year to reduce the demand for cotton, but the 2008/09 U.S. cotton at the end of the inventory is still expected to reduce. At the end of the current inventory is expected to pack 62,000,000, representing a 37% reduction beginning with the 2005 fair. Based on current expectations, stocks and consumption is forecast to more than 35.6 percent over the previous two years, a significant decline.

Due to weak demand and the recent sharp decline in cotton price, the price of upland cotton is expected to decline this month. In October, the price is estimated to be 51-62 cents / lb, the minimum range of 6 cents, the maximum range of 7 cents. In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service on Oct. 10 announced the end of the 2007/08 upland cotton price of 59.3 cents / lb more than in 2006/07, an increase of 46.5 cents. Details of the price, including the market price per month will be on October 31 agricultural price report released.

2008 U.S. textile trade lower than the same period last year

U.S. textile and apparel trade in July this year, but the total for the first 7 months of 2007 than the total amount of the transaction significantly behind. U.S. textile imports rose to 1.7 billion pounds (equivalent to the raw fiber), representing a 12% increase in June, but fell 5%. Compared with June, in July this year, the import of all fibers increased, with the exception of Ma import lower than the same period last year. The final product and apparel imports continued occupation of the bulk, in July of 1.2 billion pounds, about 68% of the total for the month.

U.S. textile exports continue to expand, in July 2008 exports amounted to 358,000,000 pounds, a slight increase in June over the same period last year increased by 7%. July cotton and chemical fiber exports to increase, but just the other products to offset the amount of reduction. Cotton, chemical fiber and Ma higher than the exports in July 2007. At the same time, yarn, thread and fabric exports of the total export volume of 79%, to 283,000,000 pounds more than in June 2008 decreased slightly, but in July 2007 increased by 7%.

According to the 2008 7-month trade, the textile trade deficit is still lower than the same period in 2007. Between July 2008 the total deficit reached 8,000,000,000 pounds, compared to last year’s 8,600,000,000 pounds, down 7%. Cotton accounts for 59%, and 4.7 billion pounds in 2007 than 7 months ago, a decrease of 6%.

2008 January-July the U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports amounted to 5,900,000,000 pounds over the same period in 2007 reduced 5.5 percent. As the economic recession continues, in the U.S. market suppliers have different levels of reduction. However, cotton products account for half of the supply of the top five suppliers proportion is increasing as time goes on.

Although Chinese cotton textiles to the U.S. market still accounts for 25% of the supply, imports from China ended in July 2008 than the same period last year, more than 6%. Similarly, Pakistan and Mexico products in the United States market share respectively over the same period in 2007 decreased by 10% and 8%. In addition to cotton products, they produce other products in the U.S. market share is also reduced. In 2008 the first seven months, the United States from India’s cotton textile imports also declined slightly, from Honduras, the import volume has increased by 2%. However, in previous years, the two countries in 2008 in possession of more market share.

2008/09 world cotton consumption continued to decline

In 2006/07, world cotton consumption in 50 years hit again and again the highest level. 2001/02-2006/07 year, growth in world cotton consumption increased compound annual rate of 5.5 percent. Consumer close to a peak value of the 1987/88 (5.3 percent) and 1967/68 (5.0 percent), but also set the 2006/07 record. Since 2006/07, global slowdown in revenue, cotton consumption in 2008/09 is expected than last year’s 123 million package to reduce by 1%.

In the 2008/09 global consumption by 1%, the world’s cotton production is expected to reduce: 7,000,000 reduction package, to 114 million package. World trade is expected to decline (2,000,000 reduction package to package 36,000,000), at the end of the world’s stock also is expected to reduce the amount of 6,000,000 to 55,000,000 package. The reduction in inventory mainly in the United States and China.

Global consumption and income decline

Global population growth, investment in the past and advances in technology have meant that global economic growth every year, but the individual country’s economic shocks brought about by a contraction in the economy. Similarly, after two years of large-scale increase in cotton consumption began to decline. World cotton consumption reduced – at least in the reduction of about 2% – is also rare, since the 1960/61 year there have been only 7 times.

Over the past few years the global economic growth during the period, the 7th largest in the world cotton consumption reduction, with an average reduction of 3.2% (based on the average purchasing power). However, the number of the Second World War to 1967, revenue growth to distort.

From the last five years the situation in the world cotton consumption is reduced, the world’s income growth rate of 2.5 percent. In early October 2008, the World Monetary Fund is expected to calendar year 2009 revenue growth rate will be increased by more than 3%.

In anticipation of the developed countries within a short period of economic weakness in recent weeks, most of the end products, including major consumer of cotton products in developing countries, especially in Asia. And a large number of foreign exchange reserves since the 1997 Asian financial crisis after the reform, developing countries have made considerable national resources to deal with, such as recently in the United States and Europe, the development of the economy. Cotton and polyester on the ratio between the price of cotton is quite favorable, compared with last year, this year’s cotton and polyester relative prices of only 6%, and cotton than polyester in the 1990s, the low price of 20%. As a result, as revenue continues to grow cotton consumption in developing countries will reduce global cotton consumption decrease.