China Futures (12-3) – the devaluation of the yuan is expected to support the cotton price

Recalling the market

December 2, Mr Cotton prices were mixed period, a significant increase in trading volume. One, CF901 contract closed at 11,330 yuan, compared with the previous settlement price was down 10 yuan; CF903 contract closed at 11,290 yuan, up 20 yuan; CF905 contract closed at 11,370 yuan, up 35 yuan; market transactions 78,716 hand-over 27,106 increase in close hand, a total of 64,282 positions in hand, the increase in 3776 hands.

U.S. cotton futures prices fell slightly. March contract opened at 46.72 (cents / lb, the same below), the highest price of 47.23, 46.07 low, the clearing price of 46.33, down 70 points on the day to register stock 919,726 package to increase the 1135 package, the package until 1646 inspection, Volume 7949.

Domestic cotton spot price rose slightly, the mainland on behalf of 229 cotton prices A national cotton price index (CNCotton A) to 11,317 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton; the mainland on behalf of the 328 countries of the cotton price of cotton B price index (CNCotton B ) To 10,701 yuan / ton, up 7 yuan / ton.

Fundamentals situation

Shouchu Summary: 2, the relevant bodies on the evening announcement said the decision by the research departments of emergency, the day of cotton Shouchu results null and void transaction processing, the corresponding number of Shouchu will continue to trade on the 3rd.

Dongying, Shandong seed cotton prices declined slightly. December 2, Dongying City, Shandong Province 3 seed cotton price for the mainstream of 5.14 yuan / kg (lint more than 40% moisture regain lower than 11%), cottonseed price of 1.66 yuan / kg, respectively, over 1, down 0.06 yuan / Kg and 0.04 yuan / kg; 3 lint selling prices for 10500-10600 yuan / ton (with votes, delivery, gross weight), unchanged from last week.

Hebei Cangzhou: Cotton prices remain strong wait-and-see mood. With Shouchu work step by step, Cangzhou, Hebei cotton price has steadily situation as a whole. December 2, and 3 local seed cotton purchase price to 2.48-2.55 yuan / jin, last up 0.05 yuan / jin around. However, limited to poor sales channels, most of the companies did not dare to act rashly, wait-and-see market sentiment remains strong.

Henan Ying Pro: Cotton City is still at a standstill. As of December 2, Henan Province, Lin Yingxian cotton market remained silent, the purchase and sale of seed cotton is almost stagnant. In the near future, only individual local cotton traders, for the purchase price of 2.2 yuan / jin, cotton growers have Hard Trading in a Dream; 329 lint quoted at 10,800 yuan / ton, 428 10,300 yuan / ton, due to the lower reaches of the procurement little demand for cotton is not high Dare to take risks to acquire processing, as a whole has a price-free status of the city.

Anhui Fanchang: Cotton prices to buy light, seed cotton prices. At present, Anhui Fanchang of seed cotton picking progress has been more than 90%, 75% sell progress, the acquisition of advanced stage of seed cotton prices have come down by the impact of business acquisitions also shrinking in the day to buy about 100,000 jin Or so. Dec. 1, 4 local seed cotton purchase price for 2.20 yuan / jin, last fall 0.05 yuan / jin.

Shaanxi Dali: sell to accelerate progress slightly, the sales price was up stability. November 26, Dali in Shaanxi 3 seed cotton (12% of the resurgence of the following, about 36% of lint) from the purchase price of 2.20 yuan / jin raised to 2.35 yuan / jin, farmers started to sell, as by the end of November, the amount of seed cotton sell Picking accounted for 50% more than the same period last year but more than 95% or sell Pianman progress and is expected to acquire local period will be extended until February 2009 or so.

Jiangsu Xinghua: Mianyou a solid market, continuing weakness in short fiber. Jiangsu Xinghua, deputy of the cotton market stable. The solid performance of the market as a whole Mianyou; cotton linter demand continues to slump, no one is interested in the basic situation. Dec. 2, 4 Mianyou local ex-factory price for 6100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan last / t; down a sale price of 2900 yuan / ton, down 2 to 2700 yuan / ton, were last Down 100-200 yuan / ton.

ICAC 12 month Bulletin: Chinese cotton consumption and reduced imports. International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 12 on 1 million deposit forecast that the global production and marketing, the world 2008/09 cotton imports are expected to reduce. By the commodity futures markets in general and cotton down the impact of insufficient demand that the international cotton price in the first three weeks in November, continued to fall, Struck A test index from the Nov. 3 fell to 56.45 cents on November 21 of 51.80 Cents in after a rebound on November 28 cents to 57.10. At present, the index early in August fell 23 cents, or 29%.

Hebei: Cotton prices rose slightly, spinning their intention to raise stock prices. Hebei Province, the purchase price of lint cotton textile enterprises have risen, on December 1, 3 lint in the offer 10300-10500 yuan / ton between the (re-public, to the plant, with votes) than in November rose 300 yuan / ton. It has been said that the spinning rate, as has been used as early bought raw materials stocks lower, while New Year’s Day and Spring Festival approaching, the textile enterprises have stock of intent, making cotton prices rose.

Textile prices Dafeng, Jiangsu difficult. China Netcom cotton hearing members visited the Dafeng, Jiangsu 3 relatively strong textile industry, that the current understanding of the local textile enterprises operating in poor, the difficulties, the main problems: liquidity flow difficulties; a serious backlog of inventory products; product Sales difficult; unreasonable inventory of raw materials; underemployment, to reduce the amount of cotton. Although the price of lint cotton has declined, but the local textile enterprises due to poor sales of products and financial problems and inability to procurement.


Short-term depreciation of the renminbi is expected to support the formation of the cotton price, but in the long term market outlook remains bleak, more than a short sky.