China’s cotton market at a depth of the deterioration of the state — “difficult” situation

According to the survey analysis, China’s cotton market at a depth of the deterioration of the state, “three noes” led to three “stop” and “three-pronged” situation – “farmers can not sell the cotton plant can not be closed, textile enterprises not to buy”, resulting in three “Stop”, that is to stop the acquisition, processing and stop the sale, resulting in “difficult to sell cotton, cotton land is difficult and hard to use cotton” panic situation, a further decline in market confidence. “The kind of afraid to species”, “afraid to close the land”, “no man’s land sales to” curb the deterioration of the depth of the delay.

To that end, calls upon countries to speed up introduction of the policy to rescue the market, the elimination of market panic, to save the market, to maintain operation order and stability in the price of the acquisition and protection of cotton processing enterprises in the interests of the current urgent to rescue the market. Shouchu to expand, the number increased to 2,000,000 tons, while the lowest price from 12,600 yuan to 13,600 yuan / ton, the maximum so that a small reduction in cotton.

I, “Cotton can not be sold” and the “cotton plant can not be acquired”, is the cotton market is the portrayal of the

1, “can not cotton to sell.” Into the late autumn, and picking cotton collection coming to an end, according to the Mainland for 6 months the main cotton producing province of the investigation, on November 3, picking cotton received 90 percent of the total. Hebei because of a mature cotton fields of cotton a year, faster opening of a boll, the fastest progress of the harvest, more than 95%; inter-planting two crops in Henan Province, in late October in the Cotton Chai out, farmers are harvesting firewood out of cotton; due to the north of Anhui and Jiangsu Late-maturing, to pick about 90% of the total a little more.

Sell seed cotton slowly and stop at the current state of the cotton market is a reflection of. The results of the investigation, 6 province of the main cotton seed cotton farmers to sell only 28.6 percent of the total, lower than the same period last year, the progress of 55% to 26 percentage points. Different provinces, the Yangtze River middle reaches of the earlier Kai Cheng, the progress of the acquisition as soon as possible; Hubei Kai Cheng also early, the progress of 43.2 percent, and many cotton enterprises in Henan have been acquired; progress sell 34.7 percent of Hebei, Jiangsu and the progress of 29.1 percent; Despite the large consumption of cotton in Shandong Province , Progress was only 26.6 percent. However, by late October, subject to market prices all the way down, Jiangsu seed cotton in a cross-sell to pay off, and Hebei, Shandong, Anhui Province, several major stop in the basic state. Shangqiu in Henan Province, and Kaifeng, Zhoukou, such as focus areas, where farmers do not sell a pound, cotton, cotton traders are everywhere last year, Zoucunchuanhu acquisitions this year, traders do not have one, there can not buy cotton.

2 “cotton plant can not be acquired”, some of the plant stopped after the first-in, many of the mainland plant is not Kaicheng. 6 of the main cotton processing enterprises in the province to buy the survey shows that the acquisition of cotton this year, the new general Kai Cheng Chi, the reduced amount of the acquisition, the current acquisition and processing in the basic state to stop. To Nov. 3, 19 plant cotton seed cotton purchase volume over the same period last year, only 39% of the total purchase less than the same period last year, 61 percentage points. In the survey of 19 corporate acquisitions, with the exception of Anhui Zhen-day source of cotton and cotton Soviet Union and Eastern Jiangsu company to buy more than double the same period last year and 20%, the rest are each less than the same period last year. In particular, early in November that most of the cotton plant is no Kai Cheng, Kai Cheng acquisition in October of the processing enterprises have been forced to stop, was busy purchasing has become “a cold shoulder in front of the traveling thin”, the rumbling sound of the original machine Cotton plant into a lonely and deserted a big plant, and some processing plants are cleaning up weeds.

To buy cotton industry is to connect the bridge and tie, once the acquisition stopped on the bridge broken, scattered on the link. To this end, the acquisition, processing and sale of such a linkage for the operation of the machine, no matter which links to stop running, the whole market will be forced to stop running. The main reason: The first is due to the spot and futures prices all the way down, deepening bear market, the market extremely weak, afraid to plant cotton land. Cotton also received a hand on tenterhooks all day, according to the current increasingly lower prices, certainly at a loss to pay damages, the suit continues, the acquisition of large enterprises, faced with the danger of collapse. The second is very difficult to sales of lint cotton to no one, apart from cottonseed than half of the decline in prices, and no one is interested. As the backlog of lint and cottonseed no one, the enterprise funds have been locked in, cash-flow difficulties and had to stop the acquisition.

Second, all the way down cotton price, cotton farmers by the sharp decline in revenue, down from the enthusiasm of cotton

1, the price all the way down. Gaokaidizou price of cotton this year, the price all the way down from September’s 2.8 to 2.9 yuan / jin, in early October fell to 2.4 to 2.5 yuan / jin, in mid-October of 2.4 to 2.5 yuan / jin, 10 During the second half, some of the price of seed cotton production fell to 2.0 to 2.2 yuan / jin, and production fell to 1.8 to 1.9 yuan / jin, a number of production value without any sign of the city and no city is priceless.

2, the cotton yield a significant reduction from three to 70. Mainland is expected cotton yield by 30% to 70%, with an average reduction of about half of the net reduction of 380 to 425 yuan / mu, but also to save the latter part of the city of the effect. The decline in earnings main reasons: First, from a substantial decline in the price of seed cotton, seed cotton last year of high following a high-opened, the sample households jin seed cotton price of 3.3 yuan to 3.1; Dikaidizou this year, since Kai Cheng to 10 months of suspension of the former , The price of 2.47 yuan jin, as a result of the price decline of 20% reduction of 310 yuan / mu, accounting for a reduction of 70% to 80%; at the same time, in the first half of this year as a result of a reduction in agricultural prices lead to 100 to 150 yuan / mu, accounting for Reduction of 20% to 30% of the total reduction of two 400 ~ 450 yuan / mu. As the market price all the way down, a new low cotton prices bottomed out is hard to predict when, if there is no support for the market, farmers will continue to reduce earnings.

Third, to correctly understand the current situation of cotton at home and abroad

(A) Although China’s cotton consumption to reduce the increase, but demand is also a great situation will not change

The global financial crisis on China’s cotton economic impact is an objective of the cotton economy clearly slowing down the speed, but to see the “three basic situation has not changed”, that is: While the incremental reduction of cotton yarn in 2008, but the production capacity Growth was also unchanged; Although the textile and garment export slowdown, but the total export growth still has not changed; in exports and stimulating domestic demand, China’s cotton consumption growth was also not change. The situation should get to see that a correct understanding.

First, China’s cotton production is good. This year production is expected in the history of second-year high and is expected to total output of 720 ~ 7,350,000 tons, in 2007, following a record high of 7,600,000 tons after the second year for high yield.

Second, China’s textile and clothing industry is also a good situation. From the National Bureau of Statistics released by the production data, in the third quarter, the cotton output last year grew 9.7 percent over the same period, 9 of which 1,905,000 tons monthly production, is the second highest this year on June 1,999,000 tons in the second month high. Cotton production in the third quarter than the 1.6 percent increase over the same period last year, of which 9 production 2,593,000,000 meters, is the second highest this year on June 2,696,000,000 meters of the second month high. Textile and garment export situation is good in the third quarter than the export growth of 4.0 percent over the same period last year, in September exports 18,010,000,000 U.S. dollars, following the July-August this year, exports of 185-186 billion U.S. dollars in the third month high, While exports fell, but still maintain high growth trend to continue.

(B) spot and futures prices down

1, to fall over the futures market, a lack of confidence in the future. At the end of 10 to early November in a row to fall by 5 “901” on October 31 or 135 yuan, Nov. 3 or 360 yuan, 425 yuan or 4, 5 or 170 yuan, 6 or 340-11005 yuan / Tons, Oct. 30 12,270 yuan / ton to 1265 yuan / ton, or 10.3 percent. Zheng market that cotton futures will fall below 10,000 yuan / ton mark. At the same time, so the New York futures also fell slightly in oscillation.

2, the spot at home and abroad remained low, drop into two or three. CC Index since July of 13,769 yuan / ton in October dropped to the 12,322 yuan / ton, down 10.5 percent; from October 6 to November 6 12,823 yuan / ton and 10.8 percent drop. A index from August’s 78.08 cents / lb in October fell to 62.3 cents / lb, 20.2 percent decline. Since October 1 to November 6 and down 16.4 percent.

Fourth, measures to rescue the market and Suggestions

Down by the global economy and weak consumption, China’s cotton market confidence in the setback, the market is in deep recession, coupled with the recent domestic and foreign cotton price slump, the cotton industry in the future full of economic difficulties, lack of confidence even more. In order to protect the cotton industry’s sustained and healthy economic development, protect the smooth sales of agricultural products, protect the interests of farmers, promoting agricultural income, it is imperative to restore market confidence, to revive confidence in the market, therefore, calls upon the Government’s strong hand, the urgent need to take a full range of rescue City measures.

1, Shouchu an additional 2,000,000 tons of cotton to be quick start the stalled market and open up the market to plug and promote the market to run a major move. To increase the country’s cotton reserves to buy to start sales of lint, and then restart the stalled in the acquisition of seed cotton lint and processing, it is necessary to clearly tell the farmers, national attention to cotton, cotton Shouchu to accelerate in the country, will continue to additional Shouchu, to close reserves will exceed 2,000,000 tons. Rapid acquisition of the processing lint has, according to the country directly into the lowest price, you can quickly get through the sale of infarction, plug-dug ditch, the implementation of open water channels. State enterprises can borrow enough storage for inventory storage.

2, to increase lending and reduce interest rates to support the acquisition of companies. Lack of funds and stop the sale of troubled acquisition and processing enterprises. Second are the boss class, that is, first, and so when the market can pick up, look at the second national support and attention. Knot system needs to end it, it is necessary to get through the sales section of stem, the processing lint Shouchu First, to free up working capital to provide loans to lower the threshold to expand the scale of credit to support the acquisition of seed cotton; second, lower interest rates, reduce the burden on enterprises And reduce losses.

3, Shouchu appropriate to raise prices less reduction in the maximum to reduce the “cheap cotton farmers hurt.” In additional Shouchu cotton, cotton farmers should be concerned, to the greatest extent possible so that small farmers to reduce the proposed 328 Shouchu the lowest increase in the price of 1,000 yuan / ton from 12,600 yuan to 13,600 yuan / ton. If the lowest seed cotton 328 catty 2.85 yuan, 37% of lint, cottonseed catty price of 0.75 yuan, 6.42 yuan lint catty; plus processing costs and profits catty 0.5 yuan, 6.92 yuan lint catty. Research, reflect and look forward to cotton farmers in general, not the lowest price lower than the 2.75 to 2.85 yuan / jin, which is lower than the price can not be accepted.

4, the cotton spinning industry, duty-bound to save the market. Active buying lint is to rescue the market, increasing inventory in the factory and storage to reduce the pressure on the stock Shouchu This is the top priority of textile enterprises.

5, like the importance we attach importance to the grain cotton production. First, the implementation of the Generalized System of Preferences seed subsidies, the number of cotton varieties make up the number of species. Increase the intensity of subsidies, subsidies from 15 yuan / mu 30 to 50 yuan / mu. The second is the implementation of agricultural subsidies on cotton. Third, as grain, cotton introduction of the minimum price to avoid big ups and downs in the price of cotton caused by the size of ups and downs.

In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the family as a fire prevention publicity. Cotton is a flammable goods, family conditions, family seed cotton storage easier for the fires, increase the risk of insecurity, stressed that a separate storage of seed cotton, and quite separate from the fire source. At the same time to prevent harmful debris mixed with seed cotton, seed cotton with people and animals, domestic animals and poultry separate reducing debris mixed with hazardous of seed cotton.