Highlights: foreign cotton mill consumption of cotton production and reduce the

United States Department of Agriculture released the latest forecast showed that cotton, foreign cotton production in 2008/09 and consumption is expected to record slightly lower than last year. Foreign production is expected to be 100,000,000 package, a reduction in 2007/08, about 1.5 percent, which is the first time in 2005 after reducing output. On the other hand, foreign consumption is expected to be 117,900,000 package than last year, a reduction of about 1%, but it is the first time in 10 years to reduce.

As the foreign cotton production is much lower than the amount of textile mills, this year, foreign consumption and production is expected to expand the gap between the 500,000 packages, to 17,900,000 package, the gap is expected to be the second largest in the history of the gap, second only to 2006 / In 2007 the gap 18,100,000 package.

U.S. domestic cotton situation

The report in October is expected to cut U.S. cotton production

10 U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly production report showed that U.S. cotton in 2008 the total 13,700,000 package, lower than the September forecast of 1% (1350 packets), representing a 29% reduction in 2007/08. Cotton production is expected to reach 13,300,000 package, lower than the September report of the 127,000 packages, ultra-long-staple cotton production forecast at 451,000 bags, down 8,000 packets.

In the past 20 years, the report in October forecast 16 times lower than the final cotton production, only 4 times higher than the final assessment. In addition, under the previous forecast in October and the final yield gap between the 2008 U.S. cotton production in the packet 13,100,000 and 14,300,000 packets between the probability of more than 3 to 2.

2008 upland cotton production areas in recent years, lower than forecast. Compared with last month, four cotton-producing regions, the three areas of upland cotton production forecast in October was down in the report. Delta production forecast down 4%, only 3,700,000 bags, is the lowest since 1986 production. However, Hurricane Gustav, and Ike was the impact of Missouri and Tennessee to make up for the increased production. October report slightly lower production in the south-western and western regions.

In contrast, the southeastern production forecast is raised to about 3,200,000 packets over the report in September increased by 2%. Although the October report of the production increase, but the estimated production in the region is still the lowest in 15 years of production. Acreage since 1993, the minimum size. However, the south-eastern region is expected to yield 788 pounds / acre for each harvest, is the first of the three highest yields.

2008 cotton harvest is expected that only a total area of 7,800,000 acres, is the smallest in 25 years, the area under cultivation, the United States to give up cotton rate at a record high, close to 18%. Report of October Based on the acreage, the 2008 U.S. cotton production forecast to 849 pounds / acre per harvest, yields this year than last year’s record by 30 pounds, but he was still the third highest yield.

As of October 5, picking cotton, the United States only 16 percent completed, compared to the same period in 2007 completed 26% of the 5-year average pace of 24%. Most of the state of progress of the picking are lower than the state average progress, Mississippi and Arkansas cotton picking progress lags far behind. With the overall growth of cotton last year, the deadline for early October, 50 percent of the cotton fields are classified as “good” or “excellent” level, 20% of the cotton fields are classified as “poor” or “very poor” level.