Early assessment of cotton (12-9) -150 million Shouchu new plan approved Recalling the market
December 8, Zheng cotton prices, positions appeared to shrink substantially. One, CF901 contract closed at 11,395 yuan, compared with the previous settlement price rose 300 yuan; CF903 contract closed at 11,275 yuan, up 430 yuan; CF905 contract closed at 11,200 yuan, up 435 yuan; market transactions 102,596 hand-over Reduction of 90,286 close hand, a total of 82,708 positions in hand, the reduction of 14,168 in hand.
Overnight in New York cotton futures rose sharply, the March contract closed at 44.34 cents, up 297 points.
Domestic cotton prices, the mainland on behalf of 229 cotton prices A national cotton price index (CNCotton A) to 11,342 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton; the mainland on behalf of the 328 countries of the cotton price of cotton B price index (CNCotton B) to 10,736 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton.
Fundamentals situation
1,500,000 tons Shouchu new plan has been approved. In order to further safeguard the interests of cotton growers, cotton market stability, the State Council has approved the submission of the relevant departments to increase the 1,500,000 tons of new cotton Shouchu. This is the second plan Shouchu 1,220,000 tons, this year the country has decided to expand the number of new cotton Shouchu, showing the government to protect the interests of farmers and stability of the market’s confidence and determination. In another development, to promote improved varieties of cotton planting area, the state will also expand the scope of subsidies for improved varieties.
Shouchu Summary: December 8 total of 30,100 tons traded, all transactions. December 8, China’s cotton reserves Management Corporation designated 46 Shouchu Shouchu open warehouse, plans Shouchu 30,100 tons, 15,000 tons for the Xinjiang cotton, 15,100 tons of cotton to the mainland. The final day of a total of 30,100 tons traded, all transactions. As of December 8, 2008 Shouchu traded a total of 760,000 tons Xinjiang cotton, cotton Mainland a total of 175,150 tons traded.
Shandong: Linqing acquisition of seed cotton slowdown in Dongying decline in cotton planting intentions. December 8, Shandong Province, the city of Linqing cottonseed price of 0.75 yuan / jin, a 4 by about 0.08 yuan / jin; seed cotton price of 2.42-2.45 yuan / jin. As the seed cotton prices, local cotton farmers to enhance emotional Hard Trading in a Dream, cotton purchase prices also decreased significantly. In addition, the national cotton market monitoring system in Dongying City, Shandong Province estuary of the local monitoring station 50 perennial point of contact for cotton planting area to investigate the intention next year, according to 2009 statistics which 50 farmers initial intention for the 737 acres of cotton, compared with the year Dropped 22.7 percent.
Hebei Cangzhou: 400 cotton purchase prices carefully, seed cotton prices fell slightly. By the impact of fuel downturn in the market, Hebei’s Cangzhou cottonseed prices fell sharply, prices of cotton seed cotton prices are also down in a timely manner. In addition, the auction so that the difficult part of the increase in cotton prices to buy more cautious, the beginning of restrictions on the purchase amount of seed cotton. Dec. 8, 3 seed cotton purchase price to 2.43-2.47 yuan / jin (lint percentage rate of 38%, 10% less water miscellaneous), down from the previous week 0.03-0.05 yuan / jin, the 400-day general corporate acquisition in the amount of Catty about 50,000.
Anhui in the east: sell the slow pace of seed cotton, cotton planting intentions dropped. Anhui in the east of seed cotton prices basically stable, Dec. 8, 3 seed cotton purchase price to 2.35 yuan / jin (lint percentage rate of 39.5%, 11% water, 1.3 percent of impurities), 4 for 2.30 yuan / jin. 400 cotton processing enterprises still purchase volume, but the farmers did not reduce the psychological Hard Trading in a Dream, the current progress of the local seed cotton sell less than 50%. Although the price is stable, but less than last year’s cotton income, some farmers said that next year will be a substantial reduction in cotton area, in particular the package to reduce cotton planting intentions.
Shaanxi Dali: Progress sell more than half of sales year-on-year to speed up progress. According to the National Cotton Market Monitoring System monitoring station in Dali, Shaanxi statistics, the progress of the acquisition of the local seed cotton is much lower than the same period last year, as of the end of Nov 2008, the rate of seed cotton to sell 50% to 95% over the same period last year; but cotton processing, sales year-on-year progress To accelerate slightly this year, accounting for the processing lint acquisition of 80%, 70% for the same period last year; the processing lint sales accounted for 80% to 60% over the same period last year.
Jiangsu: cottonseed prices Dafeng, Xinghua seed cotton price hike. As the Mianyou prices Dafeng, Jiangsu and winter aquaculture feed to reduce the large amount, resulting in poor sales of local Cottonseed Meal, cottonseed prices have come down on December 7, light seed price 0.78 yuan / jin, the seeds for gross 0.74 yuan / Jin, 5 were down 0.04 yuan / jin. In addition, the State Shouchu policy, as well as to vigorously promote the country will continue to increase admission of hearsay reserves, Xinghua in Jiangsu cotton market as a whole is getting better and better, seed cotton prices continue to rise. Dec. 7, 3 seed cotton purchase price to 2.45 yuan / jin (lint percentage rate of 37%, 11.5% moisture, 2% of impurities), 4 for 2.35 yuan / jin (lint percentage rate of about 36%, 11% moisture regain ), On December 3 were up 0.10-0.12 yuan / jin.
Yichang, Hubei: cottonseed prices continued to decline in cotton prices to buy the performance of caution. Since December, the edible oil, raw materials and commodity prices plummeted in the late cottonseed oil is relatively low impact of Yichang, Hubei cottonseed prices continued to fall, from November’s 0.8 yuan / jin dropped to the current 0.7 yuan / jin, and sales Still difficult. As the cottonseed prices, the cost of lint cotton has been folded up, plus the auction more difficult, despite the current local prices of cotton seed cotton have not lower prices, but to strictly control the quantity and quality of the acquisition. Dec. 8, 3 seed cotton price at 2.3 yuan / jin (lint percentage rate of 38%) or so.
Jiangxi Pengze: cottonseed prices have fallen, some enterprises want to suspend. By the impact of oil prices from last week, Pengze County, Jiangxi Province and the surrounding areas of cotton seed oil prices have been lowered by December 1 of 0.81 yuan / jin dropped to Dec. 8 of 0.68 yuan / Jin, a 16% decline, a one-week decline in the most. The price of cottonseed Shenfutiaozheng of 200 small businesses do not crack down, the spot price stability and increase the cost of the acquisition directly to the processing enterprises at a loss to the edge, many companies said they would re-suspend or reduce the purchase price of seed cotton.
2008 August-November U.S. Pima cotton exports dropped 80 percent. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics, as of November 27, this year’s American Pima cotton contract for the amount of 17,600 tons, down 82%; Pima cotton shipment volume for 7358 tons, up 80%. As of November 27, this year’s American Pima cotton is the main buyer of Indonesia, Germany, Japan, India and China (1328 tons). The above-mentioned five countries account for the accumulated pima cotton exports of 72%.
Looking afternoon
Overnight by the external market to stimulate the New York cotton futures rebounded sharply in the near future fluctuations increase. Yesterday the domestic market rose sharply by short covering, cotton Zheng main contract limit. Add 1,500,000 tons reserves have been approved by the State Council will also greatly enhance our confidence in the market, is expected to continue short-term rebound, bargain-buying to continue.