Since 2008, the textile industry to speed up the adoption of structural adjustment, enhance independent innovation, and the management of a variety of measures to overcome the appreciation of the renminbi, the cost factors, such as slowing demand for a variety of adverse factors continue to maintain the growth momentum. However, due to a variety of factors focus on the role of the industry growth rate fell sharply, profitability fell significantly, increasing loss-making enterprises, development of the industry is facing tremendous pressure.

First, an overall decline in the textile industry growth

1, production growth continued to slow down. Since 2008, China’s textile industry has shown continued to slow down the production trend. 1 to August, large-scale textile enterprises realized total industrial output value 2,236,200,000,000 yuan, up 15.6 percent, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year decline than the January-June growth rate dropped by 2 percentage points. Yarn output of 14,060,000 tons, up 9%, representing an increase of 9.7 percentage points lower; chemical fiber 15,940,000 tons, up 3.1 percent, an increase of 15.3 percentage points lower, which in August when production fell by 6.3 percent; clothing 13,300,000,000, an increase of 5.7 percent, down 8.6 percentage points.

2, investment growth dropped significantly. In the development of the industry is facing greater pressure on the sharp decline in profits, business-to-late stage development of the obvious lack of confidence, investment in fixed assets dropped fast. 1 to August, more than 5,000,000 yuan of China’s textile investment projects in fixed assets investment in real 176,700,000,000 yuan, up 11.1 percent over the same period last year dropped sharply by 23.5 percent, the number of new projects 4211, representing a reduction of 9.67 in the same period last year %. Sub-industry, chemical fiber, garments, textile machinery industry, such as investment, despite the growth, but decreased year-on-year increase of 30 percentage points or so. Sub-region, the eastern part of the actual investment in the textile industry 112,500,000,000 yuan, an increase of only 1% year-on-year, an increase of 27.9 percentage points year-on-year decline; investment in the central region 48,000,000,000 yuan, an increase of 31.9 percent, the growth rate dropped 24.5 percentage points; in the western region with a total investment of 162 billion yuan, up 44.2 percent, an increase of 11.7 percentage points year-on-year to improve.

3, the export growth rate continued to decline. By the slowdown in international demand, the continued appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, an increase in the cost elements of a comprehensive, raising the threshold of processing trade, corporate finance, such as tightening environmental factors, China’s textile and garment export growth continued to slow. 2008 January to August, China’s textile and apparel exports 119,000,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 9.2 percent, the growth rate last year than the same period dropped 10.1 percentage points more than in January-June growth rate dropped 1.8 percentage points, of which, in August for the month of textiles and garments Export 19,000,000,000 U.S. dollars, increased by only 2.7 percent year-on-year, clothing exports for the month fell 0.8 percent. The main exports to the volatile region, the U.S. textile and apparel exports 16,400,000,000 U.S. dollars, increased by only 0.7 percent year-on-year, an increase of 26.5 percent down year-on-year; exports to the EU 26,900,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 39.2 percent, year-on-year increased 38.3 Percent; exports to Japan 13,370,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 6.1 percent, up 2 percentage points. Hong Kong, Macau, Turkey, Mexico, Canada, and other negative growth in exports.

4, the efficiency of the sector continued to decline. 1 to August, large-scale textile enterprises realized a sales income of 2,133,800,000,000 yuan, up 15.5 percent, year-on-year growth rate down 7.4 percentage points; a total profit of 74,000,000,000 yuan, an increase of only 3.2 percent year-on-year increase year-on-year decline of 34.2 percentage points higher than January-May growth rate dropped 5.2 percentage points; chemical fiber industry realized profits of the same period last year dropped by 47.1 percent, the textile machinery industry fell by 35.7 percent. The industry average of 3.47 percent as profit margins than the same period last year dropped by 10.6 percent.

Second, the industry’s difficulties were further aggravated the trend

1, the expansion of loss, loss increase. In recent years, China’s textile industry trend of polarization became clear this year, a loss of business to further deterioration of the situation, 1-August, the textile industry over the scale of loss-making enterprises from the same period last year expanded 19.1 percent to 21.3 percent, a loss of business losses the same period last year An increase of 66% over the previous year’s 13.9 percent increase over the same period of 52.1 percentage points. At the same time, business loans more difficult, many enterprises have been facing financial risk-strand breaks, some companies have been suspended in a semi-state production.

2, the employment contraction. China’s textile industry jobs to accommodate the most important one of the industry. 2002 to 2007, China’s textile enterprises above designated size the number of practitioners average annual growth rate of 7%. January to August this year, China’s textile enterprises above designated size average number of full employment fell by 0.36 percent year-on-year decrease of 38,000 people. China Textile Industry Association estimated that the size of the following textile production and operation more difficult, production, the closure of more enterprises, the country has about 300 million workers are affected.

3, viscose industry is facing a more difficult to highlight. In recent years, China’s viscose fiber industry has developed rapidly in 2007 with an annual output of production can account for about 50% of the world, has become the chemical fiber industry in the international market the most competitive industries. However, since last July viscose fiber products and the export tax rebate rate from 11% to 5% after the development of the industry have encountered unprecedented difficulties, a substantial decline in exports, production registered a negative growth, economic decline. January to August this year, viscose staple export 64,000 tons, down 21.1 percent; viscose filament yarn exports 44,000 tons, down 35.7 percent; viscose fiber production 942,000 tons, up 2.1 percent decline; profits The total amount of 870,000,000 yuan, up 71.2 percent decline, the loss amounted to 950,000,000 yuan, an increase of 35 times that of viscose industry this year is expected to be a comprehensive loss.

Third, in the fourth quarter of 2008, the textile industry trend analysis

1, textile exports are facing increasing uncertainties. By the time loan crisis caused by the financial crisis in the United States and other parts of the world are spreading to the world economy in the deepening of China’s exports will gradually appear. The United States, the European Union, Japan and other major economies, the economic slowdown more pronounced trend, oil and other commodity prices and fluctuations in the yuan to appreciate, and so have a greater demand on the international market is also difficult to predict, the international economic environment, uncertainties will lead to an increase in China Textile and apparel exports to face more complex environment. Overall, China’s textile and apparel exports still have a competitive advantage in the international market trend of demand for textile exports this year, after a few months will have a greater impact on China’s textile and apparel exports will continue to slow down the pace of growth in the United States, the European Union, Japan, The main export markets are difficult to change the trend of deceleration.

2, elements of cost pressures still exist, the lower the price to upgrade it difficult to digest. First, raw materials, energy costs rose significantly. China’s cotton, chemical fiber raw materials import dependency as high as 40-60%. January to August, China’s imports of chemical fiber raw materials, cotton prices were up year-on-year 18.8 percent, 19.6 percent; fuel China’s industrial power prices 12.2 percent; over the same period, China’s textile retail price rose just 0.5 percent, clothing and shoes Hat products even dropped by 1.6 percent, the textile industry will be unable to increase the pressure on the cost factor out of conduction. Second, increased financial costs. January to August this year, China’s textile enterprises above the scale of interest payments on 27.5 percent growth, sales growth of more than 12 percentage points. Third, the cost of labor and employment increased. Labor-intensive textile, nearly two-year wage increase of more than 15%, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang reached the vicinity of 30% so far this year to further growth in textile and labor costs. Because of cost pressures, many companies have reduced employment, which is this year, China’s textile industry shrinking labor one of the important reasons.

3, in a depressed domestic market demand for signs. In the first half of this year, China’s urban residents per capita disposable income grew by 14.4 percent year-on-year, the growth rate than the same period last year, down 3.2 percentage points, allowing for price factors, the actual growth was only 6.3 percent over the same period of last year’s actual growth rate fell by 7.9 Percentage points. Decline in real income growth at the same time, grain and oil and other basic necessities rising prices, also affected clothing and other non-expenditure will purchase goods. According to the national focus on large-scale retail sales statistics, the 2008 January to June China’s major large-scale retail clothing business 53,100,000,000 yuan of the total sales, excluding the price factor, clothing sales grew only 11.9 percent, year-on-year drop of 3 percentage points, clothing Sales growth in the amount of 20.9 percent, year-on-year drop of 1.6 percentage points, China’s domestic clothing market demand in the doldrums, sales of non-wang of the situation. In the second half of the market price adjustment mechanism and the role of co-adaptation, China’s domestic clothing market overall will be better than the first half.

Judging from the current situation and the operation of the textile industry is facing internal and external environment, the situation is more severe in the fourth quarter, the industry growth rate will continue to drop, but still maintain a certain growth throughout the year. 2008 is expected industry-wide enterprises above designated size industrial output up 14%; to achieve profit growth last year, with basically the same; textile and garment export growth of 8%.