PTA is difficult in the short-term out of the region vulnerable

Far from the real economy out of recession in the past two weeks, Zhengzhou PTA has picked up slightly, trading volume remained high. From the fundamental point of view, PTA difficult in the short-term out of the region vulnerable.

On the spot market, crude oil for the time being subject to stabilize the Asian PTA producers adhere to the production run, and other supporting factors, raw materials for polyester plant of interest in the inquiry is on the rise, PTA slightly in the near future stability. November 28, PTA price index in fiber from November 21 of 4500 yuan / ton up to 4700 yuan / ton. But on the whole, the current domestic PTA plant capacity to continue to run at around 70%, non-thin profit margins, as well as long-term parking can not or will load PTA in December remained stable or even increased, PTA supply and demand will be even more Loose.

Cost, crude oil futures are still not out of the downlink channels. Most analysts believe the market, NYMEX crude oil or Straddle both sides will continue to be 50 U.S. dollars in the first-line fighting. Because of the demand in 2009 is expected to pessimistic about the prospects for the Asian PX production facilities there have been some non-stop plan, which led to the immediate shortage, which prompted last week slightly rebound in the PX, but the industry is expected to rebound in the high should be limited, because if the raw materials PX Prices continue to rise, PTA producers may also seek to stop instead of waiting for the loss of production. November 28, CFR China / Taiwan para-xylene (PX) LC30-45 days spot price of 659-660 U.S. dollars, than Oct. 21 rose 84 U.S. dollars / ton. Reference to the cost of formula, the current PTA production costs in 4750 yuan / ton in the vicinity (659.5 × 6.8349 × 1.02 × 1.17 × 0.655 +1200 ≈ 4750).

Downstream polyester market is relatively stable. According to the fiber in the price index, and on November 21, November 28 polyester staple fiber in the stability of the 6950 yuan / ton, up filament section 50-5750 yuan / ton, bottle grade section also rose 50 to 6900 Yuan / ton. Data from the CCF, last week Kaiji Shuai stability in the domestic polyester plant in the 73% -74% of its product inventory weighted average number of days in the stability of 20.5-21 days. However, the current market of polyester stable pattern may be only temporary. In orders this year, the textile industry against the backdrop of difficulties, most of the Lunar New Year before and after the actual weaving factory parking vacation time will be longer than that in the past 20 days to two weeks, to a certain extent, Dacron polyester sales in the back of the burden appears to be more Heavy fat.

The policy level, the state’s macroeconomic policy in the near future heaters blowing frequency. Following the State Council executive meeting last week to promote the healthy development of textile industry of policies and measures 6, the night of Nov. 26 the central bank decided to drastically cut the benchmark deposit and lending rates and deposit reserve ratio, which is the textile industry is obviously good news, the number of At present, there is no life for the textile industry has brought a ray of hope and confidence, and is currently promoting PTA, polyester market, an important step by step toward a stable external conditions, but the practical effect of the current test yet. Such as “distant water” still seems to be difficult to resolve textile industry sales in the near future “in recent thirst”, to how much remains to be seen. Moreover, because of the bank loans to SMEs has been very strict examination and approval, the rate cut will not be as good to benefit small and medium-sized textile enterprises.

Stock, the recent PTA Zhengzhou slight decline in the number of warehouse receipts. November 28, Zhengzhou PTA to 22,391 the number of warehouse receipts than on November 14 to reduce 4714. From the beginning of the end of October positions on the PTA been increasing substantially, as of November 28, PTA for the position of the total 179,974. At the present nearly 450,000 tons of positions, the funds are very clear signs of admission. TA901 from the contract positions, currently 210,000 tons of short positions will be pressure, if interested in short delivery must be in a month to raise about 100,000 tons of PTA futures to the warehouse. Of course, the current domestic production capacity to 800,000 t / month or more, not less than the amount imported 400,000 tons / month and the short 809 in rout of the fact that long term, reduce the stock market seems to be short of the unnecessary worry. Seems to be the main long continue to do so more aware of the risks, at the beginning of last week, as well as end-use of the macro aspects of positive support to reduce the number of single, “The advantage of the opportunity to” performance is clearly in order to avoid TA809 first defeat on the long end.

On the whole, not from crude oil in the downlink channel, the lower demand and do not see much hope that the background, the fundamentals do not support the PTA started the trend of rising. Despite the recent strong performance of the funds long and continuous good policy, but PTA still need to lay a solid foundation for a rebound, the industry itself on the lower reaches of the actual situation is the decision of the development of the internal market.