The next week, domestic and international cotton will be tested early low

The rapid decline of cotton this week, North Korea is approaching the early low. Whether the United States of cotton or cotton are so Zheng, although still very weak domestic spot, but the performance of the futures do not rush off. But in the current sensitive period, both the futures, or spot, the possibility of transmission of each other very, very sensitive to the market, especially for more sensitive to bad. U.S. cotton in the week to close 41.37, last down 6.54 of 47.91, more than 10% of the magnitude of last week, the highest closing price this week closing at the lowest prices, which technically is a shock characteristics of the city. Zheng May cotton contract closed at 10,840 week, fell 11,285 last week’s 445.

Cotton market is not a new concern, the domestic Shouchu continues, and reports continue to expand Shouchu. The domestic cotton, Shouchu is a substantial positive, can reduce the supply of the market; but at the same time we must strengthen the management of imports (with the exception of 894,000 tons), or cotton will Shouchu with soybeans, while high-priced land, and the other While a large number of low-priced imports of soybean imports, resulting in domestic soybean completely abandoned. Import management, for the time being is not to pay the tax slip quasi-quota, while continuing to raise the export tax rebates, the renminbi to appreciate against the U.S. dollar by the devaluation.

At present, the Government in these three areas are in greater efforts to strike quasi-taxes is estimated that the new quota will not be issued prior to planting cotton, the issue of the RMB will be on December 8 of the Central Economic Work Conference the focus of one of the issues. The first element of the monetary sovereignty, the use of money to safeguard and promote the healthy development of China’s economy is also the government can choose one of a measure, this is not unreasonable. No one to save the economy only through the provision of financial and fiscal, rather than the use of currency; the United States to dominate the world, first by the military, and the other is on U.S. and the third is the system. The yuan will now appear on the depreciation of the dollar (against other currencies, the devaluation did not) I think China and the United States is likely to reach a strategic agreement, the dollar is no threat to the United States is good at the same time in favor of domestic exports. Sino-US strategic talks was held recently, the RMB and U.S. dollar is certainly important. I believe that the devaluation of the Renminbi will be a government for stability and one of the measures to improve the economy. This is next year’s domestic textile industry is a major positive, but the effect remains to be seen when the show.

But at the same time the devaluation of the yuan could trigger a global trade war, global solidarity from the crisis into their own trade barriers for the array, which is the world’s economic recovery is very disadvantageous. This may be the cotton market this week is a one of the reasons why.

At present, the cotton market, mainly by the economic outlook and the dominant sentiment, the demand is very weak fundamentals, the market enough to cause a substantial impact. Consider the fundamentals, the level of economic and investment sentiment, almost not conducive to price increases, prices in the short drive of the stock market, as well as profit-taking a turn for the better, as well as next year on the cultivation, production concerns. However, these factors can not become the mainstream of the market.

In any case, the next week, domestic and international cotton will be tested early low of this decline is not all bad, this fall, if the early support was low, then the cotton market sentiment will be more stable and conducive to The pick-up in prices stable and, if re-breaking a record low, it can also make business for the time being to give up the idea of hunters.

It is now the trouble is: we are not able to find a standard to judge the value of cotton in the end what? This allows us to the analysis of cotton into a purely technical areas. For investors, there is no problem, but for the enterprise, this is trouble, do not know how to operate.

Generally speaking, cotton is still very weak, the whole commodity and energy markets are also weak, this is the environment, when no one can see a turn for the better. For cotton, the early low of great significance for the coming week low of pre-test also of great significance, we can only maintain observation, and can not predict what will happen in the end. Technically, Mr cotton in the fall of positions continued to increase, commercial buying and speculative selling in a positive approach. Speculative selling acts from the world’s poor economic situation, commercial buying behavior from the values and industry analysis, no one is absolutely sure.

Cotton with the largest soybean is the difference: the cotton import quota needs, and soybean do not. This may be out of the cotton and soybean prices of different causes. In any case, but even if the cotton warehouse in Shouchu also need to digest, so that the improvement in textile consumption of cotton is vulnerable to reverse the only truly effective. This process may take quite some time.