WTO forecasts for the 2008 World Trade

According to the report, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is nearing completion of the latest assessment shows that in the second half of 2008, total world trade has declined, this downward trend appears to continue until at least mid-2009.

Last spring, WTO forecast for the 2008 World Trade actual growth rate of 4.5 percent. WTO economists said yesterday that China and oil-exporting countries as a result of a significant increase in imports, making the first quarter of 2008, the World Trade unexpected emergence of strong growth. They are expected this year, although the growth rate of world trade will be lower than 4.5 percent, but trade is still very active.

“Earlier this year, and many people had hoped for, or by the emerging economies of the United States and other developed countries, the impact of financial crisis.” WTO economists said one. Recent turmoil in world financial system, as well as commodity prices fell intense (especially oil), making the purchasing power of oil exporters declined. “Financial crisis, the impact has not been completely, it may affect the real economy has only just begun.” Economists who believe that.

U.S. house prices fell due to a rise in unemployment, as well as the family needs to cut debt, the country’s consumer spending is expected to be for a period of time is likely to remain slack.

Experts: trade should domestic demand to

When the total global trade gradually began to “shrink” At the same time, China’s export orders in the financial tsunami is also under the shadow of a down trend. Not long ago, in the just-concluded China Import and Export Commodities Fair (Canton Fair) a period, to occupy half of the turnover of machinery and electronic products dropped by 13% than the previous, while the textile and apparel industry exhibitors are generally reflect the “cold Men Ting.”

A down jacket participating companies to disclose the relevant person in charge, the trend of the economy next year due to the significant uncertainty, making Europe and the United States under the single-cautious buyers. In addition, in order to guard against exchange rate risks, often with corporate clients ahead of the agreed exchange transactions, this will make some customers away.

In fact, this year China’s foreign trade in order to stimulate exports, the export tax rebate has been the use of leverage for the enterprise, “untied.” According to regulations, from November 1, due in part to increase labor-intensive and high-tech and high value-added goods, the export tax rebate rate, the adjustment of commodity relating to 3486. And many experts believe that a simple strengthening of export incentives, it may even bring among the export of “price war”, and is not conducive to enhance the effectiveness of export, only to rely on exports of structural transformation in order to realize healthy growth.

Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Institute expert Mei Xinyu of the view that the current “stagnation + financial crisis” as the characteristics of the world economy, export demand continued to maintain a 20% -30% or even higher growth rate is not realistic. “Even if China’s exports have been slow compared with vertical, horizontal, but is still a relatively rapid growth.” Mei Xinyu of the view that the domestic economy against the backdrop of cooling, just to enhance the export of China’s financial incentives are not beneficial to the stability and more reliance on domestic demand to To promote economic growth more feasible. “In the global context of economic crisis, on the one hand, to our economic restructuring brought about a lot of pressure, we undermine the economic transformation of the external environment, but on the other hand it can be said to us to create the economic growth mode transformation of the opportunity to see if we How to use. “