Zhengzhou PTA this week to continue to maintain high volume

Zhengzhou this week picked up a slight extension of PTA. TA901 closed at 4680, up 150, continue to maintain high volume.

PTA spot amidst increased slightly this week. The suspension of crude oil stabilized for the time being, the Asian PTA producers adhere to the production run, and other supporting factors, raw materials for polyester plant of interest in the inquiry is on the rise, November 28, PTA price index in fiber from November 21 of 4500 yuan / ton up To 4700 yuan / ton. But as a whole, the current domestic PTA plant capacity to continue to run at around 70%, non-thin profit margins, as well as long-term parking can not or will load PTA in December remained stable or even increased, PTA supply and demand will be even more Loose.

Cost, crude oil futures are still not out of the downlink channels. Most analysts believe the market, NYMEX crude oil or Straddle both sides will continue to be 50 U.S. dollars in the first-line fighting. Because of the demand in 2009 is expected to pessimistic about the prospects for the Asian PX production facilities there have been some non-stop plan, which led to the immediate shortage, and PX to rebound slightly this week, but the industry is expected to rebound in the high should be limited, because if the raw materials PX Prices continue to rise, PTA producers may also seek to stop instead of waiting for the loss of production. November 27, CFR China / Taiwan para-xylene (PX) LC30-45 days spot price of 644-645 U.S. dollars, than Oct. 21 rose 69 U.S. dollars / ton. Reference to the cost of formula, the current PTA production costs in 4670 yuan / ton in the vicinity (645.5 × 6.8349 × 1.02 × 1.17 × 0.655 +1200 ≈ 4670).

Downstream polyester market is relatively stable. According to the fiber in the price index, and on November 21, November 28 polyester staple fiber in the stability of the 6950 yuan / ton, up filament section 50-5750 yuan / ton, bottle grade section also rose 50 to 6900 Yuan / ton. Data from the CCF, this week Kaiji Shuai stability in the domestic polyester plant in the 73-74% of its product inventory weighted average number of days in the stability of 20.5-21 days. However, the current market of polyester stable pattern may be only temporary. In orders this year, the textile industry against the backdrop of difficulties, most of the Lunar New Year before and after the actual weaving factory parking vacation time will be longer than that in the past 20 days to two weeks or so, to a certain extent, Dacron polyester sales in the back of the burden appears to be Increasingly heavy.

The policy level, the state’s macroeconomic policy in the near future heaters blowing frequency. Following the State Council executive meeting last week to promote the healthy development of textile industry of policies and measures 6, 26, the night of the central bank decided sharply lowered the benchmark deposit and lending rates and deposit reserve ratio, the textile industry is obviously good news, this number to At present, there is no vibrant textile industry has brought a ray of hope and confidence, and is currently promoting PTA, polyester market, an important step by step toward a stable external conditions, but the practical effect of the current test yet. Such as “distant water” still seems to be difficult to resolve textile industry sales in the near future “in recent thirst”, to how much remains to be seen. Moreover, because of the bank loans to SMEs has been very strict examination and approval, the rate cut will not be as good to benefit small and medium-sized textile enterprises.

On the whole, not from crude oil in the downlink channel, the lower demand and do not see much hope that the background, the fundamentals do not support the PTA started the trend of rising. Despite the recent strong performance of the bull funds and keep good policies, but still lack solid foundation for a rebound, the industry itself on the lower reaches of the actual situation is the decision of the development of the internal market.