Not long ago, and the RMB exchange rate against the euro “break 10”, China’s textile industry to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch & Co. was acquired by the news that some numbness. In the industry, this is the last time the U.S. loan crisis of continuity, rather than bolt from the blue is even worse.

Global consumer confidence Taicuo

If the first half of this year, Chinese textile exports in the face of the biggest problems is the continued depreciation of the dollar, rising labor costs led to the textile industry costs, profit margins were significantly compressed even at a loss. In the second half of this year, foreign demand for Chinese textile industry has become less difficult to wake up the nightmare.

China has been the U.S. market in textiles and clothing exports to occupy an important position in support of a large number of domestic textile enterprises in export trade, according to the Office of the U.S. textile trade to the latest statistics, in the first half of this year, U.S. imports of Chinese textile garments a total of 13,834,000,000 U.S. dollars, compared with last year Fell 2.43 percent.

Chinese textile industry also disturbed by the fact that consumer demand in the U.S. market continues to decline. In July this year, the U.S. unemployment rate hit 4-year high of 5.7 percent, the consumer confidence index to 51.9, only half of the value of the same period last year. “The U.S. financial sector turmoil ultimately in the economic sectors increased in real terms in the credit crunch and global financial institutions will have a direct impact on a number of turbulent financial markets and the real sectors of the economy, including the local textile industry.” Ministry of Commerce, an associate researcher at the Institute Mei Xinyu said.

U.S. financial crisis spread not only dealt a blow to consumer confidence in the United States, the world’s largest re-export trade one of the country, the continued weakening of the U.S. economy also inevitably lower the global economic trend.

“The U.S. financial crisis on China’s proliferation of the textile industry has two main effects, first, the United States accounts for the global market share shrinking, and the other is caused by the shrinking global market.” Iger analyst Ma Wenfeng analysis of the East.

Early in September, following the RMB exchange rate against the euro for the first time fell below the “10” points, has yet to reverse the trend of devaluation. At the same time, Germany, Britain and the European Union pulling the economic development of the country, the situation in the economy have emerged one after another, then decreased consumer demand, Chinese textile and garment exports in the face of the global market will be shrinking. “This year is expected in October or November, China’s textile exports will slow down further.” Ma Wenfeng said.

Domestic demand as the winter or Mianpao

In order for the winter, Chinese textile enterprises out of the Anything. On the one hand, the accumulation of corporate cash, fixed assets investment more cautious. According to the statistics show that the January to July this year, China’s accumulated investment in the textile industry 153,410,000,000 yuan, up only 13.14 percent growth rate over the same period last year dropped 13.15 percent, textile investment in real annual average has dropped to 10 below. On the other hand, many textile and garment enterprises begin to reduce the human costs, currently has 30 listed textile and garment enterprises Center Daily News revealed that “paid to workers as well as cash to pay workers” year-on-year decline.

In the export, two major investment-led growth engine off, open up domestic market, Chinese textile enterprises seem to have become a matter of course in the direction. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, this year’s 1-7 month clothing textile products grew 25.77 percent year-on-year retail sales, higher than the same period last year, 0.78 percentage points. However, strong consumer representation, to reflect changes in the prices of clothing and clothing goods CPI index, but it falls short, it can not help but worry about people practical in the domestic market consumption capacity.

“China’s textile industry to expand domestic demand, apart from the correct product, but also the need to increase national income, as well as lower prices, housing expenditure was made up of too many people more purchasing power to transfer to a number of consumer goods.” Mei Xinyu says .

Trade protectionism or a comeback

U.S. financial crisis spread of the impact may be more than the decline in our exports, the U.S. government’s strong fiscal and monetary policies although the U.S. economy is expected to make from a recession, but may also lead to economic stagnation. As a result, the first textile network, deputy editor-in-chief of the new sign that the horse, “Trade protectionism may make a comeback.”

According to China’s General Administration of Customs statistics, the United States this year launched a new trading partners for the survey, 18, 15 in China, accounting for 83.3 percent, while the United States on Chinese textile and garment products, special safeguard measures implemented in 2009 on January 1 Japan canceled.

Ma analysis of the new levy, at present, the main U.S. textile groups have been put forward including the countervailing investigation, anti-dumping investigations, product-specific safeguard measures and other programs. In addition, the U.S. presidential election results will lead to a certain extent, the future of the textile trade policy towards that once the Democratic presidential candidate came to power, textiles will likely be the U.S. government on China trade policy stance of a victim of severe, and if the Republican candidate to win , The U.S. textile industry a wide range of restrictions in an attempt to face more difficulties.