Chemical fiber market analysis of the plate in the first three quarters

Plate in the first three quarters year-on-year net profit dropped 100.78 percent. In the first three quarters of 2008, the day of chemical fiber plate with a listed company to achieve a total revenue of 42.9 billion (excluding ST Frederick was, ST Wan Jie in 2008 and the new listing of Yantai Spandex, and a North-Haili shares, up 6.16 percent; To achieve operating profit 55,190,000 yuan, up 98.00 percent reduction; attributable to the realization of the parent company of the owner of -1694 million net profit, up 100.78 percent reduction, we expect to exceed the rate of decline in (our previous forecast third-quarter net profit year-on-year reduction of 70% ). Plate a total of 25 listed companies, the first three quarters of the company amounted to a loss of 10, a loss of the company’s accounting for 40% of the total, 2 for the same period last year, the company focused on the loss of viscose industry-listed companies.

Crude oil prices, the prices of polyester raw materials and their price drop. International crude oil prices since early 2007 began to rise into the channel, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures price from 50 dollars / barrel up to the July 2008 high of 145 U.S. dollars / barrel, then the price of crude oil has dropped to accelerate the trend Up to now, crude oil prices decline 55%. The main raw material for polyester and polyester chip oil related links a larger share of the domestic polyester production capacity and the domestic chemical fiber production capacity accounts for about 80%, the crude oil price fluctuations of the chemical fiber industry as a whole have a greater impact. With crude oil prices fell, polyester chip, polyester products, such as prices drop.

The export tax rebate rate reduction, in industries such as a drop in the bucket. By the international economic recession, domestic chemical fiber, textile and garment industry exports declining orders, the state two years up part of the textile and garment export tax rebate rate, the rate of increase of 2% and 1%, which makes up the second stick Plastic fiber export tax rebate rate from 5% to 14%. However, because of the deteriorating external environment, the export tax rebate rate of increase is difficult to fundamentally change the industry status quo, at the same time do not rule out the lower price make the domestic foreign exporters do not enjoy export tax rebate rate increase the profits of the possible policy change Industry can be described as a “drop in the bucket.”

It is estimated that net profit fell to about 120%. According to our forecasts, a loss for the industry as a whole, net profit fell to about 120% (excluding ST companies, newly listed companies in 2008, as well as for the main coke-dimensional cloud of shares present, the chemical fiber industry is facing the loss of support costs, sluggish demand for the lower reaches of the Double impact in the short term is unlikely to change this state, the chemical fiber industry still needs time to bottom out. We suggest that in the short term to avoid serious trade deficit with spandex, rayon-based industry listed companies.