Postganglionic downstream chemical fiber industry needs to be increased by warmer

In 2008 the first 11 months of data show that the textile industry profits for the first time decades of negative growth, and chemical fiber industry in the fourth quarter of last year had been in a loss of the plight of the entire industry. Industry figures pointed out that holiday factors upstream and downstream industry operating rate is extremely low, but there may be post-added raw materials prices, but the downstream increase in the demand for the restoration and improve operating rate is to determine the chemical industry to improve the most critical factors.

     Last year, the industry will exceed 80 percent profit drop

     According to statistics, in 2008 9 ~ 11 months, chemical fiber industry, the actual net loss of 1.243 billion yuan, synthetic fiber loss of 12 billion yuan, 160 million yuan loss of viscose fiber. And in December there was no improvement in industry conditions, the high cost of raw materials inventory is still, the loss will continue to increase the amount of expected full-year 2008 profits of the textile industry will be flat with the previous year or even negative growth, chemical fiber industry profits will drop more than 80%.

     December 2008, the size of more than 1,860,000 tons of spinning companies, fell 1.69 percent, which is yarn production for many years the first negative growth. Moreover, since since October 2008, the National yarn production fell rapidly, in November rose only 3.78 percent. Since the second half of 2008, a decrease in demand in the downstream case, chemical fiber industry chain has a lower operating rate. Among them, para-xylene (PX) operating rate less than 80%, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), only 60 percent more than polyester filament fiber at 60% ~ 80%, while PET is less than 50% , acrylic fiber industry average operating rate of 55% ~ 57%, Spandex industry less than 50% operating rate.

     In addition, the viscose fiber in 2008, has been in a depressed state, the whole industry chain, from cotton linter to the filament to staple fiber volume decline, prices gradually declining, inventories gradually improve.

     This year, unprecedented efforts to limit production

     Entered after 2009, together with the Lunar New Year holidays factors, chemical fiber industry operating rate to decline further, limiting efforts to achieve unprecedented intensity. Part of the lower reaches of the domestic textile enterprises received orders not only ahead of a holiday, the textile industry into four underemployment. On the growing demand for fiber in the doldrums, but also enable enterprises have to prepare ahead of a holiday, and extended vacation time.

     At the same time, chemical fiber raw material prices have also continued to decline, so a lot of suppression of upstream and downstream chemical product prices remained low, profitability is low and access to space for a growing regional production costs. To avoid loss of production more and more difficult, chemical fiber enterprises have chosen to stop the production line open limit production capacity, control inventory.

     One quarter will be the most difficult to move away from the plight of

     A longer period of time, low operating rate, chemical fiber industry has led to the upstream and downstream enterprises of the raw materials and product inventory decreasing. Thus, while the Lunar New Year holidays may be extended upstream and downstream enterprises to start may be delayed, but once the post-resumption of work after the purchase of raw materials would have a better market, then in terms of fiber may be a certain degree of stimulus. However, if the internal and external economic situation there has been no fundamental change, it is estimated that this market would not be long sustained. If the economy has shown signs of recovery and textile orders may have increased, then prices will continue. However, one quarter to complete a turn for the better is unlikely, but it should be the lowest operating rate, the industry difficult period. After, with the use of low-cost raw materials, textile resumption of work increased, chemical fiber industry will move away from the most difficult predicament.

     Downstream demand is to determine the key industry warmer

     Although the fiber is the end of the petrochemical industry chain industry, its operation is still subject to fluctuations in oil prices caused raw material prices, but because of excessive expansion of production capacity in recent years caused by oversupply becoming increasingly prominent, the demand has exceeded the cost of running trends affecting the industry an important factor. Thus, while oil prices, PX, Benzene and other raw materials prices rebounded bottomed warmer can be seen as the industry’s leading indicator, but more crucial is the downstream textile demand to gradually improve, as well as weaving enterprises improve the recovery of operating rate.

     The first half of a negative growth of textile and garment export a foregone conclusion

     China’s 2008 textile and apparel exports a total of 185.165 billion U.S. dollars, the growth rate of 26.28% from the beginning of the year fell to 8.18 percent. Among them, textile export a total of 65.375 billion U.S. dollars, clothing cumulative export 119.79 billion U.S. dollars, the growth rate were 16.60% and 4.10%. Textile export growth to accelerate slightly compared with the previous year 1.6 percentage points, and clothing products to slow down 16.80 percentage points. If you remove the exchange rate factors, in 2008 China’s textile and garment export growth since the beginning of June in the negative range.

     Foreign trade orders resulted in a sharp decline in textile export growth is the direct cause of decline, but because of foreign trade order has a certain lag, the current export data in 2008 also can not completely reflect the impact of the deteriorating situation in foreign trade, there in 2009 during the first half of the textile negative growth in clothing exports is a foregone conclusion. The industry generally believe that there may be a turn for the better in the second half, but it also depends on Europe and the United States to stimulate the effects of economic policy.

     Industry downturn is expected to continue for at least two years

     Industry figures pointed out that this year, prospects for the development of chemical fiber industry is not optimistic, you may need longer to recover, the industry downturn is expected to continue for at least two years. However, if the second half of the textile and general expectations of the situation can be improved in the first quarter holidays factors, negative factors that affected industries will be gradually reduced from textile and chemical fiber market is expected to pick up gradually, the situation in the second quarter will be better than the first quarter.