Cotton fundamentals still play it? No, in the near future, most likely in the next six months, or at least until February before the cotton fundamentals are no longer play a role. In February, consumer credit crisis, debt crisis, the flow of the crisis, what a mess or other crisis response cotton decision whether to play a fundamental role. Consumers have always been a key factor. Today, however, the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa, all consumers are more worried about their personal wealth, they worry about long-term and short-term purchasing power. They want to keep their own property, automobiles, as well as the health of family life and stability, which is much more important than other things. New clothes, towels, bed sheets and other daily necessities, durable goods and nondurable goods, the demand will be faced with a sharp decline of the situation.

As a result, the fundamentals of cotton, in addition to lack of consumer demand, the market is no longer attractive. Demand is the key, a few months, demand for cotton will be lost in the leverage. The United States is a huge economic engine that has driven global cotton consumption. In addition, China has become a consumer of cotton in the world’s fastest-growing consumer demand. Chinese consumers may be smaller than the impact on consumers in the West, but the clever Chinese developed the manufacture and export of machinery will be to reduce employment, as well as its own economic slowdown. From the beginning of the new millennium, China’s annual economic growth reached double digits, to maintain the growth rate in 2008. However, in 2009, China’s growth is expected to slow down below the 8% growth is still strong, but the pace has slowed down considerably.

We have a few months ago that the slowdown in demand for all commodities, because the Beijing Olympic Games closing, the pace of development in the history of the world’s highest five-year plan and construction of infrastructure construction is over. These factors on the commodity market is of great significance, but with the credit and capital markets not related to the collapse of the credit and capital markets, the collapse of a drag the world into crisis, the economic front at least 5 years of struggling or even longer.

Corn has lost all the gains in 2008, soybeans lost all the gains in 2008, also lost part of the increase in 2007, the loss of cotton in 2007 and 2008 the increase. As a result, from the perspective of agriculture, cotton production is currently very attractive for farmers. The world now faces a major problem is that the flow of capital / credit, the cotton-growing need for loans, credit risk led to many people that it is difficult for them to make the cultivation of cotton in 2009.

Similarly, the needs of the market 6-18 months to find a foundation. At the same time, market prices will swing around it is. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report released Thursday, at the end of the world’s stock is expected to increase from the previous month estimated 3,000,000 packets, 55,500,000 for the package. In addition, the United States is expected to reduce exports of 1,500,000 packets ,2008-09 is expected to export only 13,000,000 package.

December cotton futures will no longer see the price of 60 cents. When making the very fundamentals of the world economic collapse, now talk about cotton fell into the channel. However, the market will return to the middle price of 50 cents, but in the end of December.